Who is going the win the election? I certainly don't know.
The fact that dimwitted fucknozzles like Michael Barone and Dick Morris think it's going to be a blowout for Romney only means that it's not going to be a blowout for Romney, not that Obama's going to win. The fact that Scotty Rasmussen says it's too close to call gives me some hope, but I suspect that he's hedging his bets because he wants to be the go-to crooked Republican pollster after November 6, and declaring either major candidate the likely winner would jeopardize his gig.
It's all well and good that Nate Silver is positive Obama's going to win unless all the all the Electoral College polls have been biased for Obama, but I'm a life-long pessimist. Just remember what happened 12 years ago. If Republicans can't win the Presidency, all they have to do is steal it again.